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Weekly Recap Research

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Bitcoin Rebounds Following Iranian Talks News, But Cash Outflows ETF Warns Market Still Unconfident

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Bitcoin rallied in the short term after Donald Trump signaled “progress in negotiations” with Iran, which eased market concerns about the conflict and the direction of energy prices, resulting in the price rebounding to the $68,000 area. However, this recovery remains in limited scope as investors remain cautious. Situational uncertainty, particularly unresolved geopolitical risks, as well as the impact on inflation from high levels of stable oil prices.

On the other hand, the data from the institutional market reflects a different picture, with the Bitcoin ETF having accumulated about $296 million in outflows in a single week, which represents a reversal from the previous period and indicates that major investors are still not confident of the market's recovery in the short term. Despite the positive news, the overall picture reflects that Bitcoin, despite its strength. Based on news factors, but also constrained by macro risks, the market remains in a limited recovery rather than a strong rebound.

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Markets are beginning to fear rising interest rates, the Fed and Japan could rise at the same time, putting pressure on risk assets around the world.

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Interest rate hikes are back on the market's agenda, with investors beginning to weigh in on the possibility that the Fed may resume raising interest rates, rather than lower as previously forecast. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is seen as likely to pursue policy in the same direction as rising inflationary pressures from both energy prices and the currency. The weak picture reflects the transition of global monetary policy from expectations of easing to the risk of simultaneous tightening in several countries, which directly puts pressure on risk assets.

Structurally, Japan's entry into a rising interest rate cycle is highly significant, as the yen has historically served as a low-cost source for a carry trade strategy that nurtures liquidity in global financial markets. If the BoJ tightens its policies, it could lead to capital inflows and a decline in liquidity in the system, while the Fed remains the main determining factor. The direction of risk assets The overview of the situation is therefore not just a matter of interest rates, but reflects the concomitant global liquidity downsizing, which is an important risk that investors in the crypto and financial markets need to closely monitor.

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Top Net flows

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The crypto market overview is clearly in rotation, with liquidity beginning to flow into networks linked to trading and differential applications rather than traditional mainnets. The data reflects that Polygon PoS has a maximum inflow of around $95 million, followed by Hyperliquid around $85—90 million and Base around $70 million, while Ethereum has about $120 million of the most outflows. Millions of dollars and another $45—50 million of Arbitrum reflect the behavior of investors migrating capital to an ecosystem with more clear activity and opportunities to generate short-term returns. Contextually, the market also sees Bitcoin moving steadily. The $68,300 row, despite continued declines in gold and Asian stocks weakened, was also buoyed by a sell-off on the Spot Bitcoin ETF, with cash outflows of $171.12 million on March 27, a three-week high, prompting more market bullion to increasingly select assets and platforms with unique drivers.

Another factor that helps explain the picture is the narrative of the market beginning to shift from holding primary assets to more trading infrastructure and on-chain market venues. JPMorgan said Hyperliquid has been buoyed by the demand for 24-hour oil trading at a time when global markets are volatile, while the CFTC released a new FAQ on March 21 stating that crypto companies can use digital assets. As collateral in the derivatives market, it is possible under a clear risk management framework. These factors reflect that capital flows are giving more value to platforms that are practical and generate volume, rather than networks that Building on the original narrative, in summary, the week of March 23—29 is not a period when funds are flowing out of the entire crypto market, but a period in which the market is selecting new winners, and the upside is the platform that directly addresses trading and liquidity challenges.

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Fear & Greed Index

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The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is one of the tools used to assess the outlook and sentiment of the crypto market, referring to scores ranging from 0 to 100 (0 stands for Extreme Fear or Extreme Fear and 100 stands for Extreme Greed).

During March 23-29, 2026, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to level 7, which is in the “Extreme Fear” zone, reflecting that investor concerns remain high, even as Bitcoin's price tries to stabilize in the range of around $66,000 — $68,000, with a slight rebound in the middle of the week, before weakening again at the end. In line with the global market outlook still under pressure from untapped interest rates as well as geopolitical uncertainty, overall sentiment has yet to return to full risk-taking mode.

However, despite the very low level of fear, the price did not continue to fall sharply, reflecting some degree of market support. This characteristic often indicates a period of “cautious accumulation” rather than actual capitulation, so many investors choose to delay their decision and wait for new factors to set the direction. As a result, the market moves in a narrow frame, along with an alternation of short-term buying and selling forces, which reflects that the market is not over yet, but is waiting for a beat to determine the next trend.

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Bitcoin ETF Flow

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Cash flows in the Bitcoin ETF continue to echo signs of weakness, with several consecutive days of outflows, such as March 26, $171.3 million, and March 27, continuing to flow around $225.5 million, before the sell-off began to slow at the end of the week, despite some positive return dates, such as March 23, with inflows. About $167.2 million, but considering the picture as a whole for the week, it's still a “risk reduction” rather than accumulation, in line with Bitcoin price movements that are in the range of around $66,000 — $68,000, amid interest rate pressures and economic uncertainty.

The behavior reflects that institutional investors have not fully retraced, despite the fact that prices have not fallen sharply, indicating that the market is in a period of “psychological rest” rather than a clear reversal. The presence of periodic rebound, especially at the beginning and end of the week, suggests that there is still support for demand at the current price level, but There is still a lack of sufficient impetus for a continuous inflow of capital. Therefore, the overall picture remains a movement in the frame under conditions in which the market is still waiting for a clear direction.

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Ethereum ETF Flow

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The cash flow in the Ethereum ETF reflects a steady decrease in the investment weight of this asset, with outflows for most of the week, such as March 26, with $92.5 million in cash outflows and on March 27, around $48.5 million, despite some inflows, such as March 25, at around $8.5 million, but only a short-term stroke. That has yet to change the overall picture of the trend, in line with market conditions where Ethereum continues to yield lower versus Bitcoin and other assets, while overall sentiment is still in cautious mode from macro factors and interest rate uncertainty.

The picture clearly reflects that Ethereum has not yet been the main choice of institutional funding during this period, with the bullion likely flowing into assets or platforms with more obvious support issues, such as trading infrastructure and derivatives markets. Despite starting to see a slight return of buying power towards the end of the week, it is still not enough to turn into long-term accumulation, so the picture is reflective. That Ethereum is in a period of temporary investment downsizing and still has to wait for new factors to come in to support it to regain market sentiment.

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Important news:

Google Warns Taproot May Increase Quantum Attack Risk on Bitcoin Faster Than Thought  

The Long Bank overflows the Bitcoin market, pushing the hottest sentiment in 28 months, but risks hitting the park  

Bitcoin market sluggishly, investors flock to hunt for returns, main buying force disappears

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Zdroj:

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/31/bitcoin-stocks-rise-oil-slides-after-report-of-iran-s-willingness-to-end-conflict

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/03/31/bitcoin-holds-usd67-500-as-trump-signals-he-may-end-iran-war-with-hormuz-still-shut

https://tokenterminal.com/explorer/projects/hyperliquid/metrics/transactions-per-second

https://tokenterminal.com/explorer/projects/polygon/metrics/transactions-per-second

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Note: This analysis is provided every Monday, so some articles may have data discrepancies.

Nota: Questo analisi è situato ogni monday, quindi alcuni parte del articolo possono contengono informazioni inaccurati

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WARNING: CRYPTOCURRENCIES AND DIGITAL TOKENS ARE HIGHLY RISKY. YOU MAY LOSE YOUR ENTIRE INVESTMENT. PLEASE STUDY AND INVEST ACCORDING TO THE ACCEPTABLE LEVEL OF RISK.

Thank you for following.

J.P. Daniel