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Weekly Recap Research

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Bitcoin-backed U.S.-Iran deal hits $66,000, but Fed remains milestone

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The risk market rebounded after the United States and Iran reached a peace deal, scheduled to be signed on June 19, 2026, with conditions to lift the maritime blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending crude prices down about 5 percent to move closer to $80 a barrel, or about 33 percent from their peak in March. Sharp at $120, while QQQ, which references the Nasdaq 100 index, was up 2 percent in pre-market trading, Bitcoin temporarily rose above $66,000 and up about 2.7 percent in 24 hours, reflecting capital flows beginning to flow back into risky assets after pressure. As a result of energy and geopolitical factors, it began to relax.

However, the market outlook remains uncertain, as the ceasefire agreement has a preliminary duration of only 60 days, while investors await the results of the June 17 central bank meeting, in which the market estimated a 97% chance that the Fed will maintain interest rates at 3.50-3.75% on the technical side. Bitcoin rebounded from the $60,000 support to move closer to $65,600. The dollar, but the RSI is still only 37 and the price structure remains in a bearish trend. The level of $66,000 is also an important resistance that needs to be overcome to open the way to the $68,900 area and the $80,000—82,500 range, while failing to stand above the high. That said, there is still a chance to retest the $60,000 support.

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Markets Catch 3 Signals From the Fed That Could Push Bitcoin to Rebound

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Markets expect the US central bank to maintain interest rates at its June 17, 2026 meeting, as investors turned their eyes to three key factors: Dot Plot, the Fed chairman's view of the direction of inflation, and monetary policy communication guidelines for the next period. Futures markets continue to estimate an 80% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 0.25% within the month. December If the Dot Plot reflects that Fed directors support less interest rate hikes than the market expected, it could be a positive factor for Bitcoin, as it reflects a more relaxed monetary policy outlook than current estimates.

Another issue that the market is paying attention to is Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's stance on energy prices and inflationary pressures. If there is a signal that inflation is likely to slow down due to the role of AI technology and opens up opportunities for future rate cuts, it could be a boost for risky assets, including Bitcoin, which hovers near the $62,700 level during that time. Similarly, the yield on 10-year US government bonds fell to 4.43% from a high of 4.55%, easing financial conditions in the market. However, the volatility indices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are still near two-week lows, reflecting that the market has not yet anticipated. Fierce action and Fed statements could be key factors determining the direction of the market in the next phase.

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Top Net flows

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Net cash flow data over the past 7 days shows Ethereum having inflows of around $65 million, the highest in the network, followed by Hyperliquid at around $62 million, Polygon PoS around $40 million, and OP Mainnet at around $22 million, which is in line with the market atmosphere during June 15, 2026, where Ether recovered about 2.5% to around $1,721, while Hyperliquid Became one of the week's featured assets, after rising HYPE prices hit a new high above $76 on June 16, up nearly 200% from the start of the year, boosted in part by SpaceX contract trading activity on the platform. Generated more than $1,300 million in turnover

On the other hand, Arbitrum has an outflow of about $105 million, followed by Base, about $80 million, reflecting that the funds are not distributed equally to all networks, but are choosing to flow to a system that is highly liquid and with more clear new activity. This migration of capital comes amid the fact that the US central bank fixed interest rates on June 17, with an adjustment of interest estimates. At the end of 2026, from 3.4% to 3.8%, investors are increasingly wary of risky assets. The overall picture reflects that Ethereum continues to act as the capital hub on the chain, while Hyperliquid is pulling liquidity from real trading activity. Some Layer 2 network segments are facing intensified competition to keep their silver pellets within their own ecosystems.

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Fear & Greed Index

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The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is one of the tools used to assess the outlook and sentiment of the crypto market, referring to scores ranging from 0 to 100 (0 stands for Extreme Fear or Extreme Fear and 100 stands for Extreme Greed).

During June 15, 2026, the market's fear and greed index was around 19 points before recovering above 20 points after Bitcoin rallied to close to $66,000 on the positive factor that the US and Iran were able to reach an interim agreement. As a result, the price of Brent crude fell more than 4% to move closer to $83. Barrels As Bitcoin temporarily moved above $67,000 on June 16, the overview helped ease market concerns in the short term, but not enough to push the sentiment index out of the Extreme Fear zone.

Sentiment weakened again, however, after the U.S. central bank signaled a steady interest rate, sending Bitcoin tumbling near $63,900 on June 18, with $440 million clearing in the futures market before falling below $62,400 on June 19 and further clearing more than $450 million. The dollar, the sentiment index, fell to around 13 points before rebounding above 20 points on June 20—21, reflecting that the market was also reacting to short-term news factors rather than confidence in the long-term uptrend.

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Bitcoin ETF Flow

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The U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF had a total net outflow of $227.5 million over 4 business days between June 15 and 21, 2026, with 3 days of outflows and only on June 16 that flipped back to $10.2 million in net inflows, before resuming outflows of $82.2 million and $90.7 million on the 17th and On June 18, respectively, most of the sales force came from Grayscale's GBTC, which had accumulated outflows of $156.3 million, while BlackRock's IBIT went from having inflows at the beginning of the week to a total net outflow of $44.7 million.

The weak flow of capital has paved the way for a recovery in the price of Bitcoin, which previously reached $65,844 on June 15, after a deal between the US and Iran pushed Brent prices down more than 4% to $83 a barrel. However, the investment climate changed again after the US central bank agreed to maintain interest rates. It fell between 3.50 and 3.75%, signaling a tightening of monetary policy against inflation, sending Bitcoin prices down near $63,900 on June 18 and dropping below $63,000 the following day. The overall picture reflects that institutional investors are also opting for a price recovery rhythm. To reduce risk and profit, rather than continuously accumulating investments.

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Ethereum ETF Flow

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The U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF had net inflows of $22.5 million on June 15 and another $9.6 million on June 16, before direction flipped to $29.3 million in outflows on June 17 and $12.8 million on June 18, resulting in an overall June 15-21 cash outflow. Roughly $10 million was raised by BlackRock's ETHA fund, which had a combined inflow of $34.9 million in the first two days, and $21.8 million in outflows over the next two days, reflecting that institutional investment flows can also quickly change direction in the face of macroeconomic pressures.

The early week flow was consistent with Ether prices rising about 2.5% to around $1,721 on June 15, after a deal between the U.S. and Iran helped push oil prices down more than 4 percent. However, the investment climate turned negative after the U.S. central bank kept interest rates at 3.50-3.75 percent on June 17. It also signaled that interest rates could continue to stabilize at higher levels, sending crypto markets back into risk-off mode, and the CoinDesk 20 index fell more than 1.2 percent on June 18. The overall picture reflected that Ethereum was still gaining buying power as risk factors eased, but still lacking. A sufficient steady flow of capital will confirm the resumption of a new round trend.

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Important news:

BlackRock launches BITA, turning Bitcoin volatility into a target return of 15 percent per year, but in exchange for limited upside profits.

Franklin Templeton Files Open 2 ETF Bringing Dividend Shares Auto Buy Bitcoin Starting at 5 Percent

Polymarket was exposed to $1.9 million in fake bets through 1,105 videos. Views surpassed 140 million

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Source:

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/16/hyperliquid-uniswap-and-worldcoin-buck-crypto-slump-as-traders-chase-ai-defi-trends

https://cryptobriefing.com/spacex-ipo-crypto-trading-volume-hyperliquid

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/06/15/u-s-iran-deal-lifts-equities-sends-oil-lower-while-crypto-stays-wary

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Note: This analysis is provided every Monday, so some articles may have data discrepancies.

Nota: Questo analisi è situato ogni monday, quindi alcuni parti del articolo possono contengono informazioni inaccurati

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WARNING: CRYPTOCURRENCIES AND DIGITAL TOKENS ARE HIGHLY RISKY. YOU MAY LOSE YOUR ENTIRE INVESTMENT. PLEASE STUDY AND INVEST ACCORDING TO THE ACCEPTABLE LEVEL OF RISK.

Thank you for following.

J.P. Daniel